Predicted Results of the Iowa Republican Caucuses, January 3, 2012

March 15, 2012

I missed badly, except Santorum, who has as I predicted, emerged as a sleeper and now a front runner. My errors were compounded by the fact that I did not account for reasonable and fair nature of Iowa Republicans, as compared to my experience with Iowa Democrats  in the 198o Primary.


January 3, 2012

If I am at all a good prognosticator, and working within the constraints of publicly provided data, newspapers, national press, candidate websites, I predict that the Iowa republican caucuses will conclude with the following result:

1.   Ron Paul   27%

2.  Michele Bachmann 21%

3. Newt Gingrich 17%

4 Mitt Romney 14%

5. Rick Santorum 14%

6. Others 7%

This prediction is based on an analysis of the following Key Words facts:

1. Ron Paul: well-organized, well-known, anti establishment, should benefit from House capitulation to Senate and POTUS regarding 2 month extension of tax holiday. Range(23-31%)

2. Michele Bachmann: best grass-roots organization, religious conservative, Iowa native, Tea Party plurality pick , conservative women voters.  stayed on message in debates. Range(19-26%)

3. Newt Gingrich: Poll leader, Name recognition, leader of Republican Revolution of 1994, moral deficiencies, lack of media funds, subject to massive negative ad campaigns. Range(15-19%)

4. Mitt Romney: Moderate-liberal Republican, Mormon, RomneyCare, Poor Organization. Range(11-17%)

5. Rick Santorum: Strongly Conservative, Family Values, Right to Life, Catholic, Low Funds. Range( 14-19%)

6. Others: Who?

My opinion is that Santorum is a sleeper. If he were Protestant, he’d do better. The Republican Heartland is unforgetting, and homogeneous. Faith is big and a Catholic or Mormon is not going to win, at least not in the Republican Primary. Bachmann could win, but that is unlikely given concern over her electability in the mind of male voters. Paul is the front-runner and should benefit from anger with the Party Establishment and its ineptitude in Congress.

Well, that’s my analysis. When I did this for ready money, I had the benefit of polling data(telephone surveys),  primary research data (in-depth in person interviews), and focus groups. I qualify this article as highly probable but without supporting data. Let me put it this way, I wouldn’t bet $10,000 that the result will fall as written, but I would bet $100…

Bull Sullivan

formerly: President, Childers and Sullivan, Incorporated, an Alabama Corporation, The Alabama Poll, Political Opinion Research, 1977-1982

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