Predicted Results of the Iowa Republican Caucuses, January 3, 2012

March 15, 2012

I missed badly, except Santorum, who has as I predicted, emerged as a sleeper and now a front runner. My errors were compounded by the fact that I did not account for reasonable and fair nature of Iowa Republicans, as compared to my experience with Iowa Democrats  in the 198o Primary.

 

January 3, 2012

If I am at all a good prognosticator, and working within the constraints of publicly provided data, newspapers, national press, candidate websites, I predict that the Iowa republican caucuses will conclude with the following result:

1.   Ron Paul   27%

2.  Michele Bachmann 21%

3. Newt Gingrich 17%

4 Mitt Romney 14%

5. Rick Santorum 14%

6. Others 7%

This prediction is based on an analysis of the following Key Words facts:

1. Ron Paul: well-organized, well-known, anti establishment, should benefit from House capitulation to Senate and POTUS regarding 2 month extension of tax holiday. Range(23-31%)

2. Michele Bachmann: best grass-roots organization, religious conservative, Iowa native, Tea Party plurality pick , conservative women voters.  stayed on message in debates. Range(19-26%)

3. Newt Gingrich: Poll leader, Name recognition, leader of Republican Revolution of 1994, moral deficiencies, lack of media funds, subject to massive negative ad campaigns. Range(15-19%)

4. Mitt Romney: Moderate-liberal Republican, Mormon, RomneyCare, Poor Organization. Range(11-17%)

5. Rick Santorum: Strongly Conservative, Family Values, Right to Life, Catholic, Low Funds. Range( 14-19%)

6. Others: Who?

My opinion is that Santorum is a sleeper. If he were Protestant, he’d do better. The Republican Heartland is unforgetting, and homogeneous. Faith is big and a Catholic or Mormon is not going to win, at least not in the Republican Primary. Bachmann could win, but that is unlikely given concern over her electability in the mind of male voters. Paul is the front-runner and should benefit from anger with the Party Establishment and its ineptitude in Congress.

Well, that’s my analysis. When I did this for ready money, I had the benefit of polling data(telephone surveys),  primary research data (in-depth in person interviews), and focus groups. I qualify this article as highly probable but without supporting data. Let me put it this way, I wouldn’t bet $10,000 that the result will fall as written, but I would bet $100…

Bull Sullivan

formerly: President, Childers and Sullivan, Incorporated, an Alabama Corporation, The Alabama Poll, Political Opinion Research, 1977-1982

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Questionable Practices by Georgia Natural Gas – Poor Customer Service or Blantant Scam?

Having called, like thousands of other Georgians, Georgia Natural Gas, for residential service, I have found practices which seem questionable as to their benefit to Georgia customers of GNG. While the delivery of Natural Gas to residential customers was deregulated a decade ago, it may be time to review a policy that has failed to benefit Georgia consumers of Natural Gas, and may indeed penalize consumers with additional “service” and “marketing” charges. Before anyone thinks that re-regulation of the provision of natural gas to residential customers is an unwarranted intrusion on private enterprise, consider that the electrical utility service providers were not deregulated and deliver energy to homes at a lower cost per therm than natural gas, even though the cost to produce and deliver a therm of natural gas is significantly less than the same BTU value of  electricity.

My inquiry to the Georgia Public Service Commission is as follows:

I have requested service from GNG, today,  12-23-2011. My service confirmation number is 347501. A pre-pay amount of $41.02 was requested. When I attempted to pay this amount due today, I was referred to a phone number for Western Union. When I called the number, It was answered by  an associate in an offshore location, not by an American, who informed me of a charge of $3.95. When I declined to pay over the phone, I was referred to a location, a mini market, where I would be charged from $.60 to S1.50 for the privilege of paying in person. Arriving at the location I discerned it was owned by a non-American, a Pakistani national. I do no do business with non-citizens, legal or otherwise, and will not do so until all unemployed American Citizens have been offered employment. Off shore calling centers and foreigner owned companies which employ  unpaid family members and extended family members, skirting employment requirements and minimum pay requirements, are companies with whom I do not do business. The sole remaining option is to mail my pre-payment to GNG, which I certainly will do, but I must first wait 48 hours for my account number to be issued, and then, according to the GNG website, wait up to 7 days until it is posted, before I can schedule service turn-on. My complaint is simply this: why does the GA PSC allow GNG to use “pay to play” third-party companies, regardless of national origin, to collect deposits and payments? Should the fees charged by these companies not be refunded by GNG? After all, those fees are being charged and collected by these third parties, in this case Western Union, at the behest of GNG, and should be credited to the account of the customer, or at the least calculated as income in PSC  rate computations. As such fees are apparently not regulated by the GA PSC, they should not be allowed, or if allowed, they should be refunded to consumers. GNG has devised a pay by mail program that  forces most applicants to choose to pay Western Union these “service” fees, or wait up to nine days to schedule turning on gas service.  Another question, does GNG receive any financial benefit for contracting these services out to Western Union; or any consideration that is not reported to the PSC?  Should not the policy of the PSC be to encourage employment of Georgia Citizens, after all, are they not the State of Georgia taxpayers that support both the GA PSC and the revenue stream of GNG? Lastly, should not utility companies doing business in Georgia be required to maintain at least one store front in Georgia wherein business may be conducted in person by the consumers and citizens of Georgia?  Thank you for your concern.

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On the tenth anniversary of George Harrison’s Death

A Facebook comment on a favorite group’s site seemed to memorialize the death of George Harrison in a positive, mournful way.

Loving controversy as I do, and real Rock ‘n Roll, my opinion of George Harrison is much less flattering, my sentiment on his passing much less mournful, and my comment on him and his fellow performers in his most famous band, the Beatles, far less charitable: TWO DOWN, TWO TO GO…

Elvis, Buddy Holly, Bill Haley, Chuck Berry, Little Richard, Jerry Lee Lewis, Carl Perkins, Fats Domino, this was real AMERICAN MUSIC; the musicians drank straight-up whiskey, did mountains of speed, and smoked a lot of weed! No Psychedelic Brit Crap, no agnostic guru leader, no hippy hedonism, just simple self abuse and dissipation.

Ever wonder why members of my generation, iconically called Baby Boomers, are leaving behind a lower standard of living for future generations? Why we now have massive debt and deficit? Well, toke another hit, Boomers; bitch like a brit, Boomers; do your thing Boomers; do what you’ve got to do, no one can tell you what to do, ’cause you and millions like you listened to: Four low British bred, surely less than brilliant, electrically amplified, lysergically distorted, acid eroded, agnostic, misogynistic, whinny baby, musical bastards whose greatest contribution to music will be said to be, a hundred years from now, that they played the guitar and sitar in concurrent convulsive cacophony while the children of America’s Greatest Generation, the “Gifted Generation,” writhed on the couch in a calamitous stupor avoiding all responsibility and the “awful pain, man,” of “growing up! The “British Invasion” of the Sixties was the first whiff of the nascent decay of our rotting, indolent generation, far more concerned with “me” than “you” and the beginning of the musical Europeanization of America. George, like Lincoln, you lived too long.

Now I’ll go, put on a vinyl disk, and remember what it was like to dance cheek to cheek with someone special, a real slow dance, crinkled chiffon prom dress swirling as we swayed, thinking of an embrace, a kiss, of our years growing up together, and amazed at what a fine young woman that little girl next door had so suddenly become…

No, George Harrison wasn’t such a bad musician, actually he was a pretty fair lyricist, but he wasn’t us, just like entitlements, welfare, drug abuse, amorality, perversion and selfishness isn’t us. It’s all from EUROPE and it’s all wrong.

Even I must admit to spending hours listening to many of the Beatles’ Albums, beginning with Rubber Soul, the Album that corresponds with the beginning of the Beatles psychedelic drug abuse. Catchy and subversive, our generation enjoyed, even acclaimed, the melodies and lyrics of the Beatles’ songs. And while many actually enjoyed the just the “music,” I “enjoyed” watching other young radicals and rebels get sick, release pent-up demons, abuse their minds and bodies on acid, hash, peyote, alcohol, reds and yellows, barbies and the old favorite, heroin, or as we called it, smack.. I enjoyed watching a friend, Danny G., fly off the 5th floor balcony of a dorm at Berkeley; and, oh, was thrilled at finding a 14 year old “flower power girl” dead, curled up in a fetal position, laying on a filthy mattress in Hashbury. I thrilled to the screams of adolescents in the Psych Ward who OD’d and had to be “restrained” while they tripped out “on a magical mystery tour,” all while the Beatles lived in a luxury “Ashram” surrounded by pagans, mystics and fools who worshiped cows while India’s lower castes starved.

Our parents were right, these hippie kids, oh, weren’t they hip, were losers, angry, disturbed, mental, lazy, weak, weird…long hair drop-outs, or buzz cut marines, illiterate or literati…all were seeking a different life, a more fulfilled life, and had they the millions of dollars that each Beatle pocketed (those poor Limey bastards who got rich on the misery of so many), had they those millions perhaps they would have found peace. I am 64 and my best friend at the time, Tom P., has been institutionalized for 40 years; he who knew every word of every Beatles song.
I am truly glad that so many of the most Gifted Generation, that’s us Baby Boomers, were strong enough to avoid the temptations and dangers offered us by the pied pipers of sex, drugs and dissipation, but then again, I refer to my premise and ask my generation why have we failed to advance our culture, our civility and our country? If you are happy and prosperous in your life, in your family’s life, enjoy the blessing. In my life I have seen too much pain and suffering, been the cause of too much pain and suffering to ever rest easy. Maybe it wasn’t just the Beatles, or the Cream, or the Who, or Pink Floyd, or the Mamas and the Papas or the Airplane, or the Dead; maybe it was me at the Filmore intoxicated by the sadness, the meaningless of it all, or maybe it was just me failing to find hope as I watched brilliant people tune in, turn on and burn out…maybe I should have written TWO DOWN AND THREE TO GO.

Y’all really would rather listen to the Beatles than George Gershwin or Cole Porter or Woody Guthrie or Muddy Waters or Hank Williams or Ella? Really?

 

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